Decision Theory
HOWARD'S DILEMMA
According
to a possibly apocryphal story, an eminent philosopher of science once
encountered a
noted
decision theorist in a hallway at their university. The decision
theorist was pacing up and
down,
muttering "What shall I do? What shall I do?"
"What's the matter, Howard?" asked the philosopher.
Replied
the decision theorist: "It's horrible, Ernest - I've got an offer from
Harvard and I don't know
whether
to accept it. "
"Why
Howard, " reacted the philosopher, "you're one of the world's great
experts on decision making.
Why
don't you just work out the decision tree, calculate the probabilities
and expected outcomes, and
determine
which choice maximizes your expected utility?"
With annoyance, the other replied: "Come on, Ernest. This is serious."