to a possibly apocryphal story, an eminent philosopher of science once
noted decision theorist in a hallway at their university. The decision theorist was pacing up and
down, muttering "What shall I do? What shall I do?"
"What's the matter, Howard?" asked the philosopher.
the decision theorist: "It's horrible, Ernest - I've got an offer from
Harvard and I don't know
whether to accept it. "
Howard, " reacted the philosopher, "you're one of the world's great
experts on decision making.
Why don't you just work out the decision tree, calculate the probabilities and expected outcomes, and
determine which choice maximizes your expected utility?"
With annoyance, the other replied: "Come on, Ernest. This is serious."